What VelociFi Data Shows About Aging, Price Pressure, and 2026 Exposure

Texas is entering 2026 with a very different used-car inventory profile than what we’re seeing in the rest of the country. The latest December dataset shows clear pressure in three areas that matter to both profitability and risk: pricing, turnover, and aging.

Below is the Texas-specific breakdown, why it matters, and how it compares directionally to national inventory trends.

1. Inventory Prices Are Rising Faster Than the National Trend

The latest Texas inventory shows:

• Average retail price: $30,934
• National average: ~$29,383
• Texas has been on the upper end of price increases throughout 2025

Texas isn’t just expensive — it’s accelerating. Higher pricing affects:

• Sales velocity
• Consumer affordability
• Lender exposure (higher principal = higher loss severity)
• Reinsurance exposure if wholesale values slip

In short, Texas dealers are carrying more expensive metal, which compresses flexibility when conditions shift.

2. Turnover Dropped Sharply Late in the Year

Across most of 2025, Texas maintained healthy turnover. That changed heading into Q4:

• Fall turnover rate: ~52
• December turnover rate: ~36

Most large states saw declines, but Texas’s drop was steeper.

Why that matters:

• Cash flow tightens quickly
• Inventory refresh slows
• Aging creeps in
• Risk on reinsurance books increases
• Lenders see higher curtailment pressure

Turnover is the early warning indicator. Texas flashed yellow in December.

3. Aging Inventory Is Still Too High

VelociFi shows Texas sitting at:

• Average days on lot: ~127 days (national ~124)
• Units <30 days: 48 percent
• Units 30–59 days: 20 percent
• Units 60–89 days: 10 percent
• Units 90+ days: 21 percent

That final number is the concern — 1 in 5 units is now aged 90+ days.

Lingering old inventory:

• Drags down working capital
• Forces end-of-cycle discounting
• Increases lender and reinsurance risk
• Creates pricing pressure on fresh units

This is the same pattern we saw in Florida — but deeper in Texas.

4. Mileage Advantage Helps… But Doesn’t Offset Pricing or Aging

One positive in the data:

• Average mileage in Texas: ~83,712 miles
• National average: ~86,250 miles

Texas dealers are stocking lower-mileage inventory than national peers, which helps justify higher retail pricing.

But lower mileage does not offset:

• Higher days-on-lot
• Slowing turnover
• Higher average retail price
• The scale of aged inventory risk

Mileage is a bright spot — just not bright enough to counter the overall trend.

5. Total Inventory Volume Is High for Texas

Texas is a large automotive market, but Velocify’s latest count is still notable:

• ~1.4 million units statewide
• ~6,395 dealers
• ≈225 units per rooftop (slightly above national norms)

More cars per rooftop + declining turnover = predictable risk:
carrying cost and capital strain.

A Strategic Note from ASC’s Greg Reuter: Introducing RISC

ASC Warranty has been watching these Texas inventory trends closely.

Greg Reuter, leader of ASC’s sales operations, offered this perspective:

“Inventory decisions directly shape reinsurance profitability. Dealers often look at inventory performance and reinsurance performance as two different things, but they’re tied together. That’s why ASC launched RISC — a data-driven assessment that helps reinsurance plan participants understand where inventory risk is building and how to protect profit.”

RISC – reinsurance inventory spot check – uses VelociFi inventory visibility layered with ASC’s underwriting expertise to help dealers:

• Identify aging risk
• Model exposure
• Protect reinsurance profit pools
• Strengthen long-term financial performance

Any dealer participating in a reinsurance program can request a RISC assessment.

The Ashton Take: What This Means for Texas Dealers in 2026

The data paints a clear picture: Texas dealers are heading into a year where inventory management and compliance diligence matter more than ever. And that’s exactly where strong bonding and regulatory support becomes part of a dealer’s stability plan, not just a paperwork requirement.

Here’s how Ashton sees it:

1. Higher prices + slower turnover = more scrutiny on dealer financials

When inventory holds longer and values run higher, state regulators, lenders, and auditors tend to tighten their expectations. Dealers should expect:

• Stricter attention to bonding requirements
• More verification around trust accounts and recordkeeping
• Greater sensitivity to late filings or gaps in documentation

A well-structured bond portfolio protects the dealer, not just the state.

2. Aging inventory increases operational and compliance risk

When units sit, pressures rise across the business: cash flow, floorplan obligations, sales practices, titling timelines.
All of that flows downstream into bond exposure. A dealership under financial strain is the one most likely to trigger a claim.

Having both Motor Vehicle Dealer Bonds and Garage Liability Bonds set up correctly — and renewed on time — removes friction during periods when the business model is already under pressure.

3. The right bond partner matters more when the market gets unpredictable

This is where Danielle’s work stands out.

Texas dealers tell us all the time that what they value is simple:

• Fast documentation
• Direct communication with a real person
• Clear answers on what the state requires
• Help avoiding pitfalls before they become violations

That’s been Ashton’s lane for years.
And in a market where conditions can shift quickly, having someone who actually picks up the phone matters.